There was a strategy in place called the Normalization Strategy.
This seems to have meant that the Gulf States and above all Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in return for a few concessions to the Palestinians. Concessions such as work permits for Gazans. The Arab leaders appeared to have agreed and so did the right wing of the Palestinians – Fatah. But Hamas did not agree. Neither did the Settler Movement within Israel and Netanyahu’s Coalition.
Interestingly Blinken the Secretary of State appears also to have made other moves outside the Normalization paradigm.
October 7th was a direct attack on the Normalization Paradigm and it succeeded totally in wrecking it. The Settlers moved immediately to put an alternative paradigm in place that of Annexation and Ethnic cleansing and Mass Slaughter – a re-opening of the Frontier Wars of 1948. Let’s call this the Greater Israel project.
Did the Israelis know a Hamas attack was coming? We will never know in my life time. I know the Egyptians tried to warn Israel. They above all are the Arab nation most committed to the Normalization Paradigm.
Now enter onto the stage an agent we Lefties dream about but seldom see – the People of the Street – the Arab Street and the people of the Western Metropolises. I always put more emphasis on the Arab Street, above all on the people of the streets of Cairo. They have said “No” to genocide and in so doing have terrified their rulers.
It would be wrong of me though not to count the Streets of the West. There Pro-Palestinian sentiment has reached unprecedented levels. I personally see it as part of the revolt of the Youth which will play out over the next ten years or so. I see this movement as a primarily moral one. They see genocide as wrong. That has astonished their rulers.
What is likely to happen now? The Israelis are committed to the slaughter. They will try and crash through. The Arab Leaders (& Turkey) will be forced to respond. That in turn will put pressure on the main Backers of Israel – the USA and its client states, especially Germany and the UK.
In the mean time another drama is coming to a close and that is the victory of Russia in Ukraine. Russia has fought a limited war because it feared a widening of the conflict. The ME crisis has given them an opportunity though to strike hard and some people think they are about to.
It is impossible to say what might happen. But it is all very unstable because, partly at least, there is no alternative paradigm to the defunct Normalization. I do not think the Greater Israel paradigm can be put in place.
The Two State solution is a joke and it was never anything other than a part of the normalization paradigm The Greater Israel project would require a huge massacre of some millions. Also the fate of Al Aqsa mosque could come into play. Its destruction is the wish of a strong section of Netanyahu’s base but Sisi and MBS would not survive an attack on the Mosque in Jerusalem.
So my prediction is that the genocide and ethnic cleansing will continue. But this will be the first time that the whole world will be watching and they will force a halt. Not soon enough but the streets of the Muslim world and the West will act and I actually think they will triumph. Prepare to see the spectacular.
From the bin
12 Nov 2023