Who blew up Nord Stream pipeline?

“To be an enemy of the US is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal” – Henry Kissinger, former US Secretary of State.

The undersea Nordstream pipeline stretches 1,200km (745 miles) under the Baltic Sea from the Russian coast near St Petersburg to north-eastern Germany.

NordStream I opened in 2011, and could send a maximum of 170m cubic metres of gas per day from Russia to Germany. The majority shareholder was the Russian state-owned company Gazprom. In June 2022, it cut deliveries through the pipeline by 75% – from 170m cubic metres of gas a day to roughly 40m cubic metres. This coincided with Russia’s special military operation against Ukraine to prevent NATO from encroaching on its borders.

In July 2022, Russia shut down Nordstream for 10 days, citing the need for maintenance. When it reopened, the flow was halved to 20m cubic metres a day. In late August, it shut down Nord Stream 1 entirely, blaming problems with equipment. In September 2022 the BBC reported: “EU leaders say the leaks were caused deliberately. Russia denies it’s to blame.”

By September 2022 it was suspected that the pipelines had been sabotaged because millions of litres of gas were escaping from the surface of the Baltic Sea.

In August 2024, German prosecutors are seeking the arrest of a suspect over the sabotage. A Ukrainian man who was living in Poland is accused of being one of three divers who planted the explosive devices on both NordStream I and II. Polish prosecutors have confirmed they’ve received the German arrest warrant. Apparently they did not act on it because of antipathy towards Russia.

Who or what blew up Russian Nord Stream gas pipelines?
In 2022 my first suspicion was the United States partly because Biden appeared to declare his intention to do so. “If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, then there will be – there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2,” Biden said during a news conference prior to invasion. “We will bring an end to it … I promise you we will be able to do it.” he said menacingly. But we now know Biden was senile at the time and was not really in the room, so to speak.

My second suspicion was Ukraine, perhaps in concert with other NATO countries, blew up the pipeline. Ukraine had much to gain. It is alleged Ukraine was losing natural gas transit fees of up to $720 million per year from Nord Stream 1. Sabotaging Nord stream puts Putin under pressure because Moscow relies on hydrocarbons for 60% of its national budget (according to Forbes).

Pointing the finger at Russia, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki declared: “The era of Russian domination in the gas sphere is coming to an end, an era that was marked by blackmail, threats and extortion.” It is possible that Putin authorised sabotage, but I can’t see why he would have, given that he had the ability to turn the pipeline ‘on’ or ‘off’. At the time of the gas blow-out Putin had turned Nord Stream 1 off. The reason why gas was escaping was that Gazprom, for maintenance, had kept the pipeline pressurised even though it had been turned off.

Germany issues arrest warrants for blowing up Nord stream pipeline
According to this report from UNHERD, German police believe Ukraine was behind the bombing of the Nord stream pipeline that cut off energy from Russia. According to this plausible report, Zelensky originally approved the operation but later sacked the Ukrainian general involved and made him the ambassador to Great Britain (kicking him upstairs?). Zelensky claims to have withdrawn approval for the mission before it began. Poland now refuses to act on the arrest warrants issued by German police and all the suspects have escaped to Ukraine.

A murky tale of deception

Findings

The Dive
As a former diver, I say that placing the charges on two Nord stream pipelines is possible using scuba but at 80 metres it would’ve been a difficult dive. To use re-breathing (closed circuit) apparatus makes it even more risky. As an open-circuit diver using conventional scuba my deepest dive was to 40 metres. That dive nearly ended in tragedy because of failure to pump up the tanks properly. All I am saying is that this operation, as described, involves a difficult and risky dive especially to lay explosive charges.

The explosives required to blow up the pipeline itself, which is encased in a thick wall of concrete, would make the sabotage an extremely technical operation. Doing it underwater at 80 metres adds another dimension for failure. As a diver, I would want access to a hyperbaric chamber to decompress after such a deep dive. Of the two remaining suspects, the United States is most likely to have the technical facility to carry out the sabotage.

Who is guilty?
Based on the evidence provided by multiple investigative journalists Russia is out of the frame. I have not seen the evidence provided by the German prosecutors that says Ukraine was the culprit. This latest report could be a ruse to deflect the blame from the United States. Note that the Polish prosecutor did not act on the warrants for the arrest of one of the suspects. Why not?

However based on reports from US and German reporters, both Ukraine and Zelensky are still suspects. On the evidence provided so far, the CIA was aware of the sabotage mission, but did nothing to stop it. So that points towards the United States and Biden as accessories before the fact.

Ian Curr
29 August 2024

Reference

https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/latenightlive/late-night-live-jorg-schmitt/104276768